Thursday, 17/12/2020, 03:24
The world is struggling with pandemic and several uncertainties, exerting no small impact on economic prospects. Vietnam has also faced a lot of exposures but GDP growth is forecast to be among world’s highest.
Top growth in the world
Asia Development Bank (ADB) has just released the Asia Development Outlook (ADO) report 2020, of which Vietnam’s economy is forecast to increase by 2.3% in 2020, higher than the forecast of 1.8% in September 2020.
The updated report reflected the successful efforts in containing the pandemic and providing stimulus to the economy by the Government. According to ADB, Vietnam’s economic outlook over the medium and long term remains positive. Vietnam’s participation in a large number of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements and good control of pandemic will help the country’s economic rebound. Vietnam will also likely benefit from a current shifting of supply chains to low-cost countries.
According to ADB, Vietnam’s economy saw the rapid growth from 0.36% in the second quarter to 2.6% in the third quarter, which helped the average growth of the first three quarters to reach 2.1%. Therefore, ADB forecasts that Vietnam will achieve GDP growth of 2.3% for the whole 2020. Also, ADB forecasts Vietnam’s growth in 2021 to be at 6.1%.
Vietnam gains positive and quite higher growth than most comparable economies in the world, including those in Southeast Asia and Asia, being less affected by the Covid pandemic and thanks to increased public investment, recovery in domestic consumption and increased trading activities, especially with China.
Last month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also raised its GDP growth forecast for Vietnam in 2020 to 2.4% (compared to 1.6% in the previous forecast), which is among the highest in the world thanks to its prompt response and successful prevention of the pandemic.
According to IMF forecasts, Vietnam will grow 6.4% in 2021 and inflation is expected to remain close to the government target of 4%.
Standard Chartered even provides higher forecasts with Vietnam’s economic GDP growth in 2020 at 3% and 7.8% in 2021 thanks to increased consumption and sped-up manufacturing.
Also in another report, Dr. Can Van Luc and his team at BIDV Research & Training Institute said that Vietnam’s economy will recover in a V-shape from the bottom in the second quarter, then regain growth momentum from the third quarter and grow well during the year 2021. Next year, Vietnam’s GDP growth will be at 6.5-7%.
At the end of October, the Institute for Vietnamese Economic and Policy Research (VEPR) forecasts that Vietnam can achieve a full year growth of 2.8%.
As such, most domestic and foreign organizations forecast that Vietnam will grow by about 2.5-3% in a difficult year 2020. By mid-December, the economic picture of 2020 is clearly depicted. These forecasts are very close to the reality in the context of Vietnam’s impressive rebound quarter-by-quarter and often making a breakthrough in the last quarter of the year.
Still many difficulties ahead
Despite an impressive recovery thanks to macroeconomic stability and good control of Covid’s spread, the Vietnamese economy still faces many risks.
In the context of a deep global economic recession and pandemic effects, Vietnam’s economy in 2020 and beyond is also affected negatively from both supply and demand sides.
Evidently a prolonged global pandemic is still the biggest risk to the growth outlook for 2020 and 2021. Another threat is global tensions, which may lead to rising trade protection and financial risk that could be exacerbated by a prolonged pandemic. Vietnam’s economic outlook in the short term is difficult, with the global economic and domestic weakness proving worse than expected. However, economic fundamentals have not been impaired, and Vietnam looks likely to benefit from current trends in global patterns of trade, investment, and production.
The ADB forecasts -0.4 percent GDP growth for Asia this year. The outlook for 2021 remains the same, but the region still faces many uncertainties such as a resurgence of Covid pandemic, sluggish global recovery, ongoing trade tensions, and challenges for business sector. These can lead to multiple shutdowns and bankruptcies, straining the labor market and the banking sector.
The unpredictable movements of the pandemic can slow down the recovery of many major economies in the world, thereby affecting Vietnam. However, the Vietnamese economy is still a bright spot in the region and the world with positive and high growth rates.